Stock prices tumbled on Wall Street and across much of the rest of the world yesterday. They were driven sharply lower by worries over slowing economic growth in the United States and worsening borrowing conditions that could make everything from huge corporate buyouts to buying a new home more difficult. Major stock market gauges -- including the Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index -- were down more than 2 percent.
It was the worst one-day decline on Wall Street since markets plunged worldwide in late February after an investing scare in Shanghai, and it occurred amid the biggest volume of trading on the New York Stock Exchange in five years. Losses were comparable throughout Europe, and larger in many developing countries. ''The preconditions for a shock are in place,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. ''Until very recently investors were very nonchalant about risks.''
Stock markets have been volatile in recent weeks. Continued strong profits for many companies and an economic boom in Asia have helped push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, however, there are various signs of weakness in the American economy and new difficulties in borrowing for many homeowners and companies that are highly leveraged or have poor credit.
The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned. Banks will hold those loans, as they will for a similar deal involving Alliance Boots, a British pharmacy chain. Shares of DaimlerChrysler fell $4.11, to $88.91.'' There is fear, but not a fear of recession,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of the Pacific Investment Management Company, known as Pimco, a large bond management firm. ''The fear is directed toward the question of who will be willing to lend $200 billion to provide takeout financing for previously announced private equity deals.''
Yesterday, the Dow industrials plunged 311.50 points, or 2.3 percent, to 13,473.57, while the S.& P. 500 dropped 35.43 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,482.66. The Nasdaq composite index was down 48.83 points, or 1.8 percent, to 2,599.34. The S.& P. is still up 4.5 percent for the year, while the Dow is 8.1 percent higher. But the S.& P. has fallen 4.5 percent since reaching a record last week. In the last hour or so of trading, the major Wall Street indexes recovered about a third of their steepest losses for the day. Losses of more than 2 percent were recorded in Spain, France and Germany, while Britain, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil fell more than 3 percent. Asian markets fell less yesterday, closing before the worst selling began, but opened down sharply on Friday.
×¢£¨1£©£º±¾ÎÄÑ¡×ÔNew York Times£¬07/27/2007
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1£® The passage is mainly_______.
[A] a review of the current condition of the American and world stock market
[B] an introduction of the world stock market
[C] a survey of the stock deal of DaimlerChrysler
[D] about the ups and downs of stock prices
2£® Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Currently it is more difficult for Americans to borrow money from banks for house purchase.
[B] The losses from stock markets are similar in U.S. and some developing countries.
[C] Investors were worried about the potential risks in stock market before yesterday.
[D] Economic boom in Asia prevent its stock market from falling.
3£® If you were an investor, you might be able to earn money if _______.
[A] you held the shares of DaimlerChrysler
[B] you purchased new shares when the stock market opened yesterday.
[C] you bought and sold shares at the last one or two hours before closing
[D] you didn¡¯t trade any shares yesterday.
4£® We can infer from the text that _______.
[A] The Chrysler transaction will turn to be a failure.
[B] The banks hold the loans because of Alliance Boots.
[C] Bill Gross thinks the fear is from the huge amount of money.
[D] The difficulty of borrowing leads to the shrinking prices of shares of DaimlerChrysler.
5£® The writer¡¯s attitude towards the current stock market is_______.
[A] biased
[B] objective
[C] pessimistic
[D] optimistic
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The plunge came a day after the private equity firm buying Chrysler from DaimlerChrysler said it would complete the transaction for the automaker despite an inability to borrow the money in credit markets, as had been planned.
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War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.
Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans¡ªand traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.
Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.
BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things ¡°their¡± company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these ¡°preference trees¡± were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.
Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.
The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason¡ªalthough having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. ¡°To know your enemy, you must become your enemy,¡± as Sun Tzu would say.
×¢£¨1£©£º±¾ÎÄÑ¡×ÔEconomist, 05/31/2007
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1£® The expression ¡°abound in¡± (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.
[A] be limited
[B] be appreciated
[C] be driven
[D] be plentiful
2£® According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.
[A] has been completely abandoned.
[B] fails to consider rivals¡¯ reactions.
[C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.
[D] functions well for the development of most companies.
3£® The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.
[A] the role playing of competitors
[B] the composition of several turns
[C] the introduction of quantitative factors
[D] the rising popularity of the game
4£® Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?
[A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.
[B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.
[C] ¡°Preference trees¡± refers to desired outcomes of the companies.
[D] War game¡¯s predictive ability is not convincing
5£® Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?
[A] feedback
[B] mathematics
[C] interaction
[D] consideration of enemy
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multiple [`mQltipl] adj. ¶àÑùµÄ, ¶àÖØµÄ trade-off n. ½»»», ж¨, ½»Ò×
consultancy [kEn`sQltnsi] n. ×Éѯ; ¹ËÎʹ«Ë¾ algebra [`AldVibrE] n. ´úÊýѧ
revenue [`revinju:] n. ÊÕÈë stifle [`staifl] vt. ʹÖÏÏ¢, ÒÖÖÆ
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Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months.
Ö÷Ìå¾äʽ Mr McDermott says¡
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