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72.        Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in
profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing
stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are
choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this
conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department
and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is
problematic in two critical respects.
      In the first place the author's conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy
products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data
gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn
from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not
representative of entire year's sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments
and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
      In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be
biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is
possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other
regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to
be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
      In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing
argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year
and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.