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4.  In response to a coincidence between calling revenues and delays in
manufacturing, the report recommends replacing the manager of the purchasing
department. The grounds for this action are twofold. First, the delays are traced to poor
planning in purchasing metals. Second, the purchasing manager's lack of knowledge of
the properties of metals is thought to be the cause of the poor planning. It is further
recommended that the position of the purchasing manager be filled by a scientist from
the research division and that the current purchasing manager be reassigned to the sales
department. In support of this latter recommendation, the report states that the current
purchasing manager's background in general business, psychology, and sociology equip
him for this new assignment. The recommendations advanced in the report are
questionable for two reasons.
      To begin with, the report fails to establish a causal connection between the falling
revenues of the company and the delays in manufacturing. The mere fact that falling
revenues coincide with delays in manufacturing is insufficient to conclude that the
delays caused the decline in revenue. Without compelling evidence to support the causal
connection between these two events, the report's recommendations are not worthy of
consideration.
      Second, a central assumption of the report is that knowledge of the properties of
metals is necessary for planning in purchasing metals. No evidence is stated in the
report to support this crucial assumption. Moreover, it is not obvious that such
knowledge would be required to perform this task. Since planning is essentially a
logistical function, it is doubtful that in-depth knowledge of the properties of metals
would be helpful in accomplishing this task.
      In conclusion, this is a weak argument. To strengthen the recommendation that the
manager of the purchasing department be replaced, the author would have to
demonstrate that the falling revenues were a result of the delays in manufacturing.
Additionally, the author would have to show that knowledge of the properties of metals
is a prerequisite for planning in purchasing metals.