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Vietnam's stockmarket
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The South China Sea bubble
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Deterring a new foreign invasion of Vietnam
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THE trading floor at Saigon Securities in Ho Chi Minh City is buzzing[1] on Monday morning, as shares edge towards another record closing high. Hundreds of investors watch the big-screen display of prices; their eyes fixed on their stocks, their ears fixed to their mobile phones.

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Like many locals, Nguyen Kim Dinh and his wife now visit their stockbrokers every day. Mr Nguyen has retired from his job with the city government and plays the markets full-time. Many others, to their bosses' consternation[2], slip out of the office or spend all day checking their portfolios on the internet instead of working. £¨1£©A sneak peek has been especially tempting of late: the main VN Index, which rose by 145% last year, was up by a further 56% by March 12th, though since then the worldwide market jitters have brought Vietnam's shares off the top.

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Squeezing past the tip-sheet sellers crowding the stockbroker's doorway, Mr Nguyen leads the way to a caf¨¦ next door, where spivvy[3] characters in baseball caps are touting shares in obscure, unlisted companies. One, whose business card describes him as ¡°CEO¡± of a one-man broker, is touting a block of shares in a hydro-electric firm for the equivalent of $22,000. How can we find out about this company, Mr Nguyen asks? No problem, smiles the broker, I can put you in touch with people who work inside it.

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£¨2£©Insider trading and worse frauds are a grave danger on this ¡°OTC¡± (over-the-caf¨¦-table) market. But risks are not much lower on the official exchange. Many firms, including state companies up for privatisation, are only now starting to keep proper, audited accounts. The State Securities Commission is struggling to keep up with the flood of new listings. Reliable information is scarce, making it easy to whip up prices by spreading rumours. Last week shares in a broker soared when it hinted it had agreed on a link-up with Wall Street's mighty Goldman Sachs, then plunged when this proved untrue.

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The popular embrace of share-trading is all the more remarkable given that the stockmarket did not exist until seven years ago. The bullishness is partly justified. Vietnam has enjoyed annual growth of around 7-8% since 2000. Perhaps $20 billion of foreign direct investment is expected this year, which should keep the economy humming[4]. The government, though still nominally communist, has quickened its free-market reforms, recently joining the World Trade Organisation. Hidden horrors there may be, but some firms also have hidden treasure, notes Dominic Scriven of Dragon Capital, a local investment bank. In particular, land is often valued on their books at well below market prices.

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Even so, the impromptu trading rooms of Ho Chi Minh City are beginning to resemble the London coffee-houses that incubated the ruinous South Sea Bubble in the early 18th century. £¨3£©Mr Nguyen reckons his fellow punters[5] do realise that prices can go down as well as up¡ªthough some of those crowding the trading floor look as if the shirts on their backs are the only ones they have to lose.

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Although much of the buying is local, foreign investors are also piling in to what remains a fairly small market. Its total worth has risen from $400m in early 2006 to around $22 billion. Vietnam's government and the International Monetary Fund worry that if foreign investors took fright, the market could collapse.£¨4£©The IMF is urging the government to cool the market, but preferably not through panic measures like the sledgehammer capital-controls that Thailand introduced last December. These triggered a stockmarket fall without achieving their objective of stopping the baht from rising.

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The IMF reckons that the price-earnings (p/e) ratio of the market's top 20 firms is 73.3¡ªway above anything seen in other emerging markets, now or during the Asian boom that ended almost a decade ago. Local brokers dispute the IMF's sums: they say the market average p/e is ¡°only¡± about 30-40. Calculations are distorted by the rush of rights issues, which is diluting earnings, thus making p/e ratios look especially giddy[6]. If companies spend their new capital profitably, their earnings will pick up, their price multiples will fall and the market will look better value.

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So far, the authorities have been cautious, says Alain Cany, HSBC's chief in Vietnam. He expects measures to slow, but not obstruct, flows of foreign portfolio investment. Local banks, which have been lending freely to finance share-buying, are being reined in¡ªthough Mr Cany thinks the restrictions should be even tighter. Taxing capital gains, as the government has contemplated, would also cool the market.£¨5£©Perhaps most importantly, the government is pressing the biggest and best state firms, which have yet to be listed, to speed up their plans. Since investors seem desperate to buy, it is best that they be offered shares in well run firms with good prospects. Give the running dogs of capitalism something to leap at.

»ã·áÒøÐÐÔ½ÄÏÇø×ܲüòÒãÂ×£¨Alain Cany£©Ëµ£¬Ò»Ö±ÒÔÀ´µ±¾Ö¶¼Ê®·Ö½÷É÷¡£ËûÏ£Íûµ±¾Ö²ÉÈ¡µÄ´ëÊ©²»»á×èÖ¹µ«Äܼõ»ºÍâ¹úͶ×ʵÄÓ¿Èë¡£ËæÒâÏò¹ÉÃñÌṩ´û¿îµÄµ±µØÒøÐÐÒÑ¿ªÊ¼¡°ÐüÑÂÀÕÂí¡±¡ª¡ª²»¹ý¼òÒãÂ×ÈÏΪӦµ±½øÒ»²½Ç¿»¯ÏÞÖÆÐÔ¾Ù´ë¡£Õþ¸®ÒѾ­ÔÚÔÍÄðÕ÷ÊÕ×ʱ¾ÀûµÃË°£¬ÕâÒ²»áÆðµ½½µÎÂ֮Ч¡£×îÖØÒªµÄ¿ÉÄÜ»¹ÊÇ£¬Õþ¸®Õý¶½´ÙһЩÉÐδÉÏÊеÄÓÅÐã´óÐ͹úÓй«Ë¾¾¡¿ìÉÏÊС£¼ÈȻͶ×ÊÕß¹ºÂò¹ÉƱʱ²»¹ËÒ»ÇУ¬ÄÇô×îºÃ¾ÍÊÇÄÜÈÃËûÃÇÂòµ½¾­ÓªÍêÉÆ¡¢Ç°¾°¿É¹Û¹«Ë¾µÄ¹ÉƱ¡£ÒªÈÃÕâЩ×ʱ¾Ö÷ÒåµÄÓµõ»ÃÇÓÐÀû¿Éͼ²ÅÐС£

[NOTES]

1. buzz v. (with sth) be full of excited talk, gossip or rumours ³äÂúÐ˷ܵÄ̸»°Éù¡¢Ïл°»òÒ¥ÑÔ: The courtroom buzzed as the defendant was led in. ±»¸æ±»´ø½øÀ´Ê±, ÉóÅÐÊÒÀï·¢³öÒ»ÕóàÐÔÓÉù. * The village was buzzing with excitement at the news of the Queen's visit. È«´åµÄÈ˶¼Ð˷ܵØ̸ÂÛÖøÅ®ÍõÝ°ÁÙµÄÏûÏ¢. * The office is buzzing with rumours. °ì¹«ÊÒÀïàÒàÒÔûÔûµØÒéÂÛÖøÒ¥ÑÔ.

2. consternation n. [U] surprise and anxiety; great dismay ¾ª¿Ö; ¾ªãµ; ¾ª»Å: filled with consternation ¾ª¿ÖÍò×´ * To her consternation, he asked her to make a speech. Ëý¸Ðµ½¾ª»ÅµÄÊÇËûÒªÇóËý·¢ÑÔ.

3. spiv n. (Brit sl derog Ùµ, ±á) flashily dressed man who has no regular job but makes money by (usu dishonest) business dealings Ò¹ڳþ³þ¡¢ Î޹̶¨¹¤×÷µÄÈË£¨Í¨³£×öºÚÊÐÂòÂôÕߣ©. ¨Cvy adj.

4. hum v. (infml ¿Ú) be in a state of activity »îÔ¾: make things hum ʹÊÂÇéÏÔµÃÓÐÉúÆø * The whole place was humming (with life) when we arrived. ÎÒÃǵ½´ïʱ, µ½´¦ÊÇ·±Ã¦µÄ¾°Ïó.

5. punter n. (Brit) (a) person who punts (punt 3 1, 2) ¶Ôׯ¼Ò»òÈüÂí϶Ä×¢µÄÈË; ¸ã¹ÉƱͶ»úµÄÈË. (b) (infml derog ¿Ú, ±á) foolish or unthinking person who can be persuaded to buy goods or services of poor quality Ô©´óÍ·: You can write what you like, as long as it keeps the punters happy. Äã¿ÉÒÔÏëÔõ÷áд¾ÍÔõ÷áд, Ö»ÒªÄÜÈÃÄÇЩ»¨Ô©Í÷Ç®µÄÈ˸ßÐ˾ÍÐÐ. * Your average punter (ie The ordinary uncultured person) does not go to the opera. Ò»°ãûʲ÷áÎÄ»¯µÄÈËÊDz»»áÈ¥¿´¸è¾çµÄ.

6. giddy adj. (-ier, -iest) 1 (a) [usu pred ͨ³£×÷±íÓï] having the feeling that everything is turning round and that one is going to fall Í·ÔÎ; Ñ£ÔÎ: I feel giddy; I must sit down. ÎÒ¾õµÃÍ·ÔÎ, µÃ×øÏÂÀ´. * have a giddy feeling ÓÐÑ£Ôεĸоõ * (fig ±ÈÓ÷) giddy with their first business success ΪÉÌÒµÉϳõ´Î³É¹¦¶øƮƮȻ. (b) [usu attrib ͨ³£×÷¶¨Óï] causing such a feeling ÁîÈËÑ£ÔεÄ; Í·»èÑÛ»¨µÄ; Í·ÔεÄ: travel at a giddy speed ÒÔÁîÈËÄ¿Ñ£µÄËÙ¶ÈÐнø * look down from a giddy height ´ÓÁîÈËÑ£Ôεĸߴ¦¸©ÊÓ * (fig ±ÈÓ÷) Life then was a succession of giddy triumphs, ie exciting but not stable or lasting. ÄÇʱµÄÉú»î¿ÉνÈ˼äµÃÒâ¡¢ ǧºìÍò×Ï, Ê¢¼«Ò»Ê±. 2 [usu attrib ͨ³£×÷¶¨Óï] (dated derog ¾É, ±á) too fond of excitement and pleasure; not serious ÈÈÖÔ춴̼¤ºÍ»¶ÀÖµÄ; ÇḡµÄ; ²»ÑÏËàµÄ: a giddy girl, who will never settle down to anything serious ÓÀÔ¶°²²»ÏÂÐÄÀ´×öÕý¾­ÊµÄÇḡŮº¢. 3 [attrib ×÷¶¨Óï] (dated ¾É) (used to add emphasis to certain exclamations ÓÃÒÔ¼ÓǿijЩ¸Ð̾´ÊÓïµÄÓïÆø): Oh my giddy aunt! Ŷ, ÎҵĺùùÃ! * That really is the giddy limit! ÄÇÕæÊÇ×î´óÏÞ¶ÈÁË!